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Candidates shrug off election polls

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With various polls predicting different outcomes, Conservative and Liberal candidates in Brantford-Brant say the numbers aren’t changing their plans for the final days of the campaign.

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“I’m going to be canvassing right up to 6 p.m. on Monday,” said Conservative Phil McColeman, who is seeking his fourth term in the Oct. 21 federal election.

That was echoed by Liberal candidate Danielle Takacs, who is taking her second run at representing Brantford-Brant after being defeated by McColeman in the 2015 election.

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Both say they believe in the old political adage:  “The only poll that matters is on election day.”

But Takacs said she was buoyed on Thursday by a new poll published by Mainstreet Research that puts her neck-in-neck with McColeman.

Mainstreet’s phone poll of 652 people shows that 33.9 per cent of leaning and decided respondents said they’d vote for McColeman if an election was held tomorrow, while 33.1 per cent would cast a ballot for Takacs.

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The margin of error for the poll stands at plus or minus 3.84 percentage points.

A poll conducted by Mainstreet last month showed McColeman with a 4 1/2-point lead over Takacs.

“What I like about this poll is that it’s localized,” said Takacs.  “I have a positive and extensive team working with me. It’s nice to be validated by polls.”

The Mainstreet poll also indicates that 15.1 per cent of respondents said they’d vote for the NDP’s Sabrina Sawyer, 11.5 per cent for People’s Party of Canada candidate Dave Wrobel, 4.4 per cent for Green candidate Bob Jonkman and 1.9 per cent said they’d vote for another party.

But Barry Kay of the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy is projecting the riding will remain Conservative blue when the votes are counted on Monday.

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According to Kay’s estimates, McColeman has a greater than 10-point advantage over Takacs.

“Based on the algorithm we’ve used, we’re calling for a Conservative win of at least 10 points, more likely 12 to 13,” said Kay, an associate professor of political science at Wilfrid Laurier University.

A Conservative win is also being projected by 338Canada.com, which offers electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data.

Last updated on Thursday, 338Canada.com was “leaning CPC,” projecting McColeman taking 37.9 per cent of the popular vote, with the Liberals at 32.7 per cent, NDP at 16.7 per cent, Greens at 9.2 per cent, and People’s Party of Canada, 3.1 per cent.

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Takacs said her focus in the last days of the campaign will be trying to convince undecided voters that she’s the progressive choice.

“What I’m hearing at the doors is that, after 11 years (of local Conservative representation), it’s time for a new approach. “This isn’t the same riding it was 11 years ago.”

Although McColeman says he’s getting a “really good reception” while door-knocking, his election loss in 2006 taught him to “take nothing for granted.”

“We’ve learned lessons from both winning and losing,” he said. “Our campaign team is tireless. We don’t allow polls to have any influence on our plans. It doesn’t change what we do.”

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