High water levels increases safety risk for lake and river travel over winter

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As disturbing as it is to see the high water levels on Lake of the Woods and the Winnipeg River at this time of year, we’re not alone when it comes to concerns over the potential flood risk next spring.

In Winnipeg over this past weekend I observed ice flows sailing by with the current along the visibly swollen and fast moving Red River. The view of the Assiniboine River was similar, drifting slabs of ice and snow that formed upstream during the cold weather that followed the Thanksgiving snowstorm in October, now breaking free with the recent milder temperatures.

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Ice flows in November? It’s as unusual an occurrence as was the opening of the Red River Floodway at this time of year. Duff’s Ditch as it was named by detractors of former Manitoba Premier Duff Roblin who made the project a priority during his time in office back in the 1960s. The Floodway has since proved invaluable in high water years. Following the ‘Flood of the Century’ in 1997, the 47 kilometre long channel was widened during the 2000s increasing its capacity by more than one-third, from 2,500 m3/s to 4,000 m3/s, sufficient to protect the city from a one in 700 year flood.

Scientists are reluctant to attribute the current situation to Global Warming as there simply isn’t enough long term data to support such a conclusion… yet. However, they will concede that such extreme weather events as the one we experienced with the Thanksgiving storm are becoming stronger and more frequent.

Elsewhere, such as Venice, Italy’s world heritage city rising from a sea level lagoon in the northern Adriatic Sea is especially vulnerable to fluctuations in water levels.

Flood events there have occurred more frequently in recent decades. News photos of the current crisis are particularly disturbing as tourists wade through knee deep sea water covering St. Mark’s Square during high tide.

The damage to architecture and art treasures is estimated in the hundreds of millions and the Mayor of Venice blames global warming as the cause in calling on politicians and the world community to come to the aid of his sinking city.

The Italian government declared a state of emergency and released 20 million Euros to begin repairs. The Moses Flood Project is an engineering solution designed to protect the city. It has been under construction since 2003 and is expected to be completed in 2021.

Back home in Kenora, there is some cause for optimism as relatively dry weather conditions have prevailed since the October rains. A few weeks ago more water was flowing from Rainy Lake into Lake of the Woods than was flowing out through the Kenora dams into the Winnipeg River. In an effort to stabilize water levels to seasonal norms before freeze up, the Lake of the Woods Control Board allowed unrestricted outflows from the Kenora and Norman dams of 1,475 m3/s. It was the first time such measures were implemented in the fall to contend with high water levels to ensure there is sufficient reserve capacity in the lake to accommodate inflows from the spring melt.

Thankfully it seems to be working, although water levels are still high for this time of year, the lake level is coming down. The LWCB is once again restricting outflows from the lake which was at 1,050 m3/s on Thursday, Nov. 14. To achieve the targeted outflow of 800 m3/s by the end of November, the control board has scheduled a series of further reductions to outflows. The first went into effect on Friday, Nov. 15 restricting water flow out of the lake from approximately 1,050 m3/s to 1,000 m3/s which will also result in a corresponding drop in the level of the Winnipeg River to follow. The outflow was reduced by 50 m3/s again on Monday, Nov. 18 with similar reductions scheduled for Nov. 22, 25 and 29 until the 800 m3/s target is achieved and maintained through the winter.

While still high the outflow is necessary to create capacity in the lake for the influx of water from the spring melt in March/April 2020.

Nevertheless as water flow into and along the Winnipeg River and English River will be higher than normal over the winter, there is an increased risk of potentially dangerous currents and unsafe ice conditions in areas that are normally stable. There is also the potential for shoreline damage to docks and structures.

According to the bulletin posted on the lwcb.ca website, snowmobilers, ice anglers and travelers are advised to take extra precautions when on or near the Winnipeg and English Rivers. Areas of high current on Lake of the Woods also pose an increased risk of ice safety, especially in the Kenora area near the outlet channels and near the mouth of the Rainy River.

Reg Clayton